How This Model Works
Risk Score Components (0–100)
Each organisation receives a composite financial stress score built from four normalised indicators:
- Low Operating Margin (35%) —
(1 − normalised(operating_surplus_deficit / turnover × 100)) × 35. Inverted so lower margins score higher risk. - High Arrears (25%) —
normalised(current_arrears / rents × 100) × 25 - Void Losses (20%) —
normalised(void_losses / rents × 100) × 20 - Viability Grade (20%) —
normalised(viability_grade numeric) × 20. Grade extracted as number (1–4), higher = weaker.
Normalisation
Each indicator is min-max normalised across all organisations: (value − min) / (max − min), producing a 0–1 scale.
Status Classification
- At Risk — score ≥ 60
- Watch — score ≥ 40 and < 60
- Stable — score < 40
Data Requirements
Organisations must have valid turnover and unit count. Viability grade defaults to 2 (compliant) if not available.